TFD Opinions: Republican Presidential Nomination Odds July 7

I'll update this every week (or less frequently in slow election news periods) with my take on who's going to win the nomination.

9. Newt Gingrich 3%- I'm guessing the only reason his campaign is still alive (albeit barely) is because he wants to make some more money off the attention he gets as a candidate. He's run his campaign about as poorly as one can but I still give him 3% because no candidate has really shined yet and he at least has ideas even if they're bad ones.

8. Rick Santorum 3%- It's kind of surprising he's not doing at least a little bit better. He's not really a likable character but he's one of the few candidates that can legitimately put a checkmark next to all of the solid conservative viewpoints that most primary voters expect.

7. Ron Paul 3%- Ron Paul wins straw polls and collects a lot of cash but it's hard to see him getting above 15% in any state. If you could cast more than 1 vote in a primary, his diehard fans would bring him a victory but that's not the case.

6. Herman Cain 8%- Cain is that classic CEO character that Republicans love but his inexperience might catch up to him. It's easy to run as an outsider when you're taking shots at the insiders, but he's yet to present any real solutions or plans other than his declarations that he has a 3 point plan for everything.

5. Jon Huntsman 8%- He's been quiet since his campaign kicked off to little fanfare. I think he's running in the wrong year. His one big chance was if Mitt Romney tried a strong appeal to the right wing leaving the moderates up for grabs but it seems like Romney has been moderate enough to take away his one shot to win over a party that is moving clearly to the right. Try again in 2016.

4. Tim Pawlenty 13%- Mr. Process of Elimination keeps losing ground. Romney outflanked him on the left, Bachmann outflanked him on the right and all he's done is make mistakes. I criticized him for having no real accomplishments to run on and apparently he started running ads about how he "won" the Minnesota government shutdown in 2005. I used to agree with Lawrence O'Donnell that Pawlenty would sneak his way to the nomination but I'm losing faith in his ability to win purely by being an acceptable second choice.

3. Michele Bachmann 17%- Michele Bachmann's biggest enemy is the "Other" category. If Sarah Palin made the stupid decision to enter the race, I think she could actually defeat Palin but Rick Perry is another story. Members of the House of Representatives don't often find themselves in presidential races and Rick Perry's solid resume as a long time governor of a big state would likely let the air out of the Bachmann balloon. If nothing else, he'd hurt her more than Romney I'd imagine.

2. Other 20%- As just mentioned, this category is essentially Rick Perry and Sarah Palin. I don't think Palin will or should run. Rick Perry seems to be moving toward entering the race. He brings the executive experience of Romney with the right wing views of Michele Bachmann, a combo that could easily get him the nomination as long as the party isn't worried about Bush fatigue.

1. Mitt Romney 25%- Romney might be the weakest frontrunner in decades but he's still the frontrunner and day by day, he's holding onto the title. Like Bachmann, I think his big fear is that Rick Perry jumps into the race because a lot of people would be more than happy to pick someone other than Romney. One saving grace for him is that New Hampshire and Nevada are both early states and he should do well in both of them to keep the aura of success going in the early months even if Iowa and South Carolina don't work out too well.