TFD Opinions: Republican Presidential Nomination Odds August 29

Not much of an update but a few changes as the race heads into the heavy debate season...

9. Newt Gingrich 1% (0)- The Gingrich campaign is currently pushing an article calling Gingrich the Comeback Kid. Nice try.

8. Rick Santorum 1% (-1)- Santorum is now complaining about a gay jihad against him. Does he not realize he started it?

7. Herman Cain 2% (-1)- Struggling with the fact that there's no reason to vote for him over Romney or Bachmann or Perry.

6. Ron Paul 3% (0)- The new story is that Ron Paul doesn't get any attention so he's getting attention because he gets no attention.

5. Jon Huntsman 4% (0)- Huntsman is doing a great job running as an independent. Too bad he's running for the Republican nomination. There's still that small chance that the party will swing toward someone competent and electable unlike the current frontrunners though.

4. Other 5% (-7)- After big waves about Pataki, Giuliani, Palin, Christie, or Ryan getting in the race, they've died down and we're back to the field as it stands again. Given dissatisfaction with the field, there's still a chance someone will make a move but it's less likely by the day.

3. Michele Bachmann 10% (-5)- As she probably feared, Rick Perry has really stolen her thunder. Also, she seems to have trouble campaigning toward people other than that sliver of the activist base that loves her. There's a decent chance she'll win Iowa but after that, she'll probably struggle as much as Huckabee to pick up many more states.

2. Mitt Romney 34% (+4)- Looks like it's down to 2 in the real race for the nomination. Romney is starting to fall behind Perry and has to keep Perry's conservative opponents viable to eat away at his numbers or he might be in trouble. Unfortunately for Mitt, this might be 2 elections in a row where he picks the wrong side of the Republican electorate to follow but the reality is that his problem is that he's perceived as a fraud.

1. Rick Perry 40% (+10)- Perry has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the race in the national polls. The Iowa/New Hampshire calendar doesn't provide him with an easy win but after that he should be able to pick up a lot of states and if he can cement himself as the inevitable nominee early, he can shut it down. I assume Romney is going to do everything possible to draw out the race because it's unlikely Romney can sweep the early states. One big question remaining for Perry is the debates. He's stumbled occasionally on controversial issues and his first actual debate isn't until next week when his views go under the microscope. Interestingly, this primary has become similar to 2008 with Clinton and Obama at the top with Edwards on the outside looking in but still in the top tier.