TFD Opinions: Republican Presidential Nomination Odds August 21

10. Tim Pawlenty 0% (-6)- T-Paw dropped out of the race, good riddance.

9. Newt Gingrich 1% (0)- No changes for Newt except his critical trip to Hawaii to shore up his support for the Hawaii primary.

8. Rick Santorum 2% (0)- Rick Santorum, like gay marriage, can say he's a real contender but that doesn't make it true. Third tier candidate is what it is.

7. Ron Paul 3% (0)- There's been some coverage about Ron Paul not getting enough coverage but despite the fact that it's unfortunate that he doesn't get much attention, he also has a ceiling on support which will stop him.

6. Herman Cain 3% (0)- He said he'd be happy to finish 5th in New Hampshire. Does he realize there's no prize money for runners up?

5. Jon Huntsman 4% (0)- Huntsman made some smart statements lately but that's not what the Republican base is looking for so he better be planning an independent or 2016 run.

4. Other 12% (+10)- With the assault on Rick Perry in full swing, suddenly every national Republican figure thinks they can jump in and win. Given the general weakness of the field, who knows whether someone like Paul Ryan or Chris Christie will ride into the rescue late in the game. Of course, Sarah Palin lingers as well.

3. Michele Bachmann 15% (-2)- Rick Perry has stolen her thunder and despite her big Straw Poll win, Perry combined with whoever gets into the race might crowd her out.

1. Mitt Romney 30% (0)- Somehow Romney continues to stay under the radar and he must be thrilled to see right wing candidates entering or considering entering the race. He could be in trouble if Paul Ryan or Chris Christie actually gets in though.

1. Rick Perry 30% (-2)- While Perry rises in the polls, he's being hit from all sides. Suddenly the savior is under the microscope and it's not going well but as the race stands now, he's still a clear frontrunner.