TFD Opinions: Republican Presidential Nomination Odds August 13

Post Ames Straw Poll/Rick Perry entry edition:

10. Newt Gingrich 1% (0)- It's probably even less than 1% at this point but until he drops out of the race, I'll stick with whole numbers. He had a terrible showing at the Straw Poll as expected and his primary opponent at the debate was FOX News which isn't going to help his cause.

9. Other 2% (-28)- With Rick Perry in the race, the Other category now is down to Palin, Giuliani, and the other potential candidates that probably won't run. Somehow Giuliani beat Obama in a general election poll last week but I think people are remembering 9/11 Rudy Giuliani and forgetting awful campaigner/blowhard 2008 Rudy Giuliani who went from frontrunner to bust.

8. Rick Santorum 2% (0)- He beat Herman Cain at the Straw Poll which is good news for him but he's still a second or third tier candidate with little chance to win. His debate performance on Thurs was erratic at best and if he stays in the race, he'll probably get bounced after a so-so finish in the Iowa Caucus.

7. Ron Paul 3% (0)- You'd think almost beating Michele Bachmann in the Straw Poll would increase his chances but I think everyone knows he has a limited ceiling despite his solid group of supporters. Never say never though.

6. Herman Cain 3% (-3)- Cain failed to beat Santorum at Ames and I think that spells the end for Herman Cain. He's reasonably popular but I just don't see a way that he overtakes Bachmann or Perry in the fight for that sector of the party. He also blatantly lied to Chris Wallace at the debate about his mosque quote.

5. Jon Huntsman 4% (-1)- Huntsman seems dead in the water and had a poor showing in Ames but at least he's still a moderate and has some chance to grab the nomination on electability and perceived competence.

4. Tim Pawlenty 6% (-4)- Pawlenty went for broke at the debate and most of his "No more Mr. Nice Guy" comments came off more as mean and cranky than serious and presidential. He's gone from the winner by default to also ran with a bad campaign and now with Perry in the race, they're taking away all of his oxygen. His distant 3rd in Ames after trying really hard to win suggests he's on his way to a permanent seat in 4th place behind the big 3.

3. Michele Bachmann 17% (+2)- Bachmann has solidifed herself as part of the 1st tier of candidates and impressively won the Straw Poll by a big margin over Pawlenty to effectively knock him out. It's still hard to see her taking the anti-Romney spot away from Rick Perry but he's totally untested on the campaign trail so if he falters, Bachmann will be there to win Iowa and take over. Even in a bad bad economy, I can't see her getting 270 electoral votes so I think that electability concern will push the mainstream of the party toward Perry or Romney when a choice needs to be made.

2. Mitt Romney 30% (+2)- It's to the point where everyone assumes it'll be Romney vs. someone for the nomination so he's done a good job of setting himself up as already being in the final 2. Romney's flip flop history will continue to haunt him and eventually they won't accept his dodges during debates. At that point it'll come down to whether he can capture enough of the party from the left to stave off his main opponent, presumably either Bachmann or Perry.

1. Rick Perry 32% (+32)- Perry finally gets into the race and is already the frontrunner. As a long time governor and solid conservative, I think it's his race to lose. He's yet to be tested on the campaign trail or in the debates so there's definitely a chance he pulls a Pawlenty and blows it. Every day he's in the race and looks like a strong candidate, Bachmann's balloon deflates a little and it sets up a final showdown between him and Romney.