TFD Opinions: Republican Presidential Nomination Odds August 4

On the President's birthday, an updated look at the odds for his 2012 opponent. Change from July 20 in parentheses.

9. Newt Gingrich 1% (-1)- Giving him 1% might even be charitable. There continue to be no signs of life in his campaign and recently it was revealed that he fabricated most of his Twitter followers. At this point he's really only in the race to save face and keep his name somewhat in the news.

8. Rick Santorum 2% (0)- No changes other than his continuing feud with Dan Savage which probably doesn't help or hurt his chances at winning the nomination. There's at least a chance he'll do well in the Ames Straw Poll to keep his campaign away from the life support level.

7. Ron Paul 3% (0)- No changes for Paul either. He has a good fundraising machine so maybe he can surprise some people in Ames though the media will write it off as good fundraising without a large base of support like they do for all his poll accomplishments.

6. Jon Huntsman 5% (-1)- Huntsman is fading fast and now there are stories of internal drama on his campaign team and a semi-gaffe about Michele Bachmann. Supporting the debt deal may have been the responsible thing to do but I doubt it'll get him any primary voters. Better luck next time in 2016?

5. Herman Cain 6% (-1)- Every week Herman Cain loses a little more ground. Since "winning" that initial FOX debate, he's made a few gaffes and done little if anything to suggest the voters should nominate a guy with no political experience. That "I'm an outsider" card only plays for so long before people realize that being an outsider means having no clue what's really going on in politics.

4. Tim Pawlenty 10% (-1)- Pawlenty has started going after Bachmann in hopes of reclaiming the role of Not Mitt Romney but it doesn't seem like he's succeeding. At first it seemed like he would do well as Mr. None of the Above but everyone realized that not only does he have no charisma, he also lacks quality ideas and a suitable resume. He needs to do well in Ames before he gets relegated to clear second tier candidate.

3. Michele Bachmann 15% (-3)- As much as Bachmann's campaign has succeeded lately, it's still hard to picture a member of the House being the Republican nominee, especially one that's so far on the fringe of the party like Bachmann. She'll command a lot of votes but given Rick Perry continues to inch closer to running, why would people pick a member of Congress over a big state governor?

2. Mitt Romney 28% (+3)- Romney continues to mostly hide in the shadows but he has the advantage of having a lot of money and looking like the most electable candidate at this point. Despite Obama's struggles, Romney is the only candidate on the list that comes anywhere close to beating Obama in general election polling and given how badly Republicans want to beat Obama, they might hold their noses and vote for Romney.

1. Other 30% (+4)- Rick Perry looks like he's running and it's hard to imagine people choosing Bachmann or Pawlenty over Perry. The biggest problem for him is if the right wing doesn't consolidate around him and they end up splitting the vote and allow Romney to win by having a solid base. There's also the lingering possibility that someone like Sarah Palin will run but it seems unlikely and only accounts for a few of the percentage points.