TFD Opinions: Republican Presidential Nomination Odds July 20

Change from last week in parentheses:

9. Newt Gingrich 2% (-1)- Newt's campaign has been just so bad that it's hard to imagine him even getting to Iowa let alone winning anything. He'll have to go back to scamming gullible people out of their money.

8. Rick Santorum 2% (-1)- Hasn't done anything to raise his profile and while he checks all the boxes for the right wing, it seems like Michele Bachmann has taken any chance he had to gain support.

7. Ron Paul 3% (0)- No real changes for Ron Paul. He fundraises well and has a loyal following but no reason to believe it'll bloom into plurality support.

6. Jon Huntsman 6% (-2)- The Republican Party shows no signs of showing any moderation so it's hard to see Huntsman getting anywhere this year.

5. Herman Cain 7% (-1)- He continues to expose himself as not really understanding politics given his newest idea that any city can ban mosques. His support will probably continue to leak to Bachmann or Perry if he enters.

4. Tim Pawlenty 11% (-2)- Pawlenty continues to flounder and has become so irrelevant that PPP is replacing him with Rick Perry in general election polls. I still think he has a chance to win by process of elimination but that chance drops as it appears Rick Perry is more likely to enter the race.

3. Michele Bachmann 18% (+1)- Bachmann has become the standard bearer for the anti-Romney voters much to Pawlenty's chagrin. There's no way she should be President but for now, she's the no compromise right wing candidate many in the party are looking for.

2. Mitt Romney 25% (0)- Romney continues to be a frontrunner but Bachmann's surge shows how much the Republicans are looking for someone better than him. He continues to fly under the radar though and should have a lot of establishment support and money behind him to sell the economic message.

1. Other 26% (+6)- The bulk of this group is Rick Perry. He hasn't gotten into the race yet so I'm leaving him in the other category but if he does, he should rocket to front runner status or close to it. Unlike Tim Pawlenty, he has a strong resume and a more vibrant personality. He's the Michele Bachmann rightwing-ness + the Mitt Romney executive experience which is pretty much what Republicans are usually looking for in a candidate. Of course Sarah Palin is lurking out there but she seems to become more irrelevant by the day and would only help Romney if she were to get in as a spoiler.